Tuesday, September 25, 2018
Business

Fueled by more people, Florida’s economic prospects look good over next 30 years

Florida’s economy should be in good shape 30 years from now. There will be bumps, including four to five recessions, if history is a guide. And not everyone will get an equal share of the prosperity.

But thanks largely to a steadily growing population, the state’s financial fortunes look rosy. By 2047, the state will be home to more than 29 million residents, up from about 21 million today.

"One of the big economic distinctions between Florida and states in the northern Rust Belt is our growing population," said Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida. "More people in a state’s economy by default means more economic activity."

PURCHASING POWER:If you live in this county, your earnings go further.

Snaith recently released his institute’s annual look at where Florida will be in 10, 20 and 30 years. By 2047, he forecast the state’s total economic output will more than quadruple in today’s dollars from about $1 trillion to just over $4 trillion. Retail sales and personal income will also rise significantly. Housing starts will tick up, too.

Some industries will do a lot better than others.

Snaith forecast construction jobs to jump from a little over 500,000 to more than 1.1 million, propelled by more demand for houses, condos and apartments.

The health sector will continue its nearly uninterrupted decades-long climb, adding another half a million jobs in the next 30 years. State and local governments will continue to add jobs, as will Florida’s large leisure and hospitality sector.

The information sector will continue to have ups and downs over the next decade as newspapers and magazines continue to struggle with how to find enough people to pay for their work. After that, Snaith predicts a quick expansion, pulled along by the sector’s high-tech components, including computer programmers and software developers.

CONSUMER: Following Simply Orange, Tropicana shrank the size of its orange juice containers.

The already massive professional and business services sector will more than double to over 3.1 million jobs. The forecast highlights the ongoing shift away from industries that make things and toward service providers, including professionals in science and technology.

The trend also shows up in the steadily declining number of jobs in manufacturing, a sector already dinged by automation and foreign competition. Snaith predicts the number of manufacturing jobs will tick up slightly in the next few years and then decline through 2047.

"Some of the recent policies of the Trump administration with regards to trade have given a boost to manufacturing," Snaith said. "But those won’t be enough to turn the longer term trends."

In 2047, tourism and its offshoots will still dominate, Snaith said. Other sectors will keep growing, which will continue to help diversify the state’s economy. But that progress could get obscured as tourism expands just as quickly.

"Things like retail and tourism are not going to suddenly shrivel up. They are the backbone of the economy," he said. "I have described tourism as the 600-pound gorilla of Florida’s economy that has become a 700-pound gorilla in the past seven or eight years."

Where will all these new people come from? Florida remains attractive to businesses and workers fleeing states with fewer prospects. Retiring baby boomers will continue to flood in. The state also benefits from its share of foreign immigration and a birth rate that exceeds its death rate.

RELATED: More business news

The influx will come with growing pains — economic, political and environmental. But whether or not you like the idea of more people, the spigot cannot easily be shut off or even slowed. And Tampa Bay should expect a bigger share of the next wave.

The already densely populated Miami-Fort Lauderdale area is getting hemmed in by geography, much more so than the Interstate 4 corridor, Snaith said. The result will be relatively high economic growth for our area, including overall employment and per-capita income, compared to the state’s other metro areas.

"The I-4 corridor is really the bread basket for Florida in terms of growth rates going forward," Snaith said. "When you look at Tampa to Orlando, and all the way to Daytona Beach, there is a lot of room to grow in all directions in terms of physical space."

Snaith remains impressed by Florida’s turnaround since the Great Recessions, especially over the past five to seven years.

"It wasn’t that long ago that we were still mired in the aftermath of the recession," he said. "To see that recovery take root in the past five years, and the pace of growth accelerate as it has, was sort of phoenix-like."

Contact Graham Brink at gbrink@tampabay.com. Follow @GrahamBrink.

Comments
Weight Watchers slims its name down to WW

Weight Watchers slims its name down to WW

Weight Watchers is its dropping its brand name in exchange for something slimmer: "WW." The company says the new logo - coupled with the tagline "Wellness that Works" -- puts an emphasis on overall health and well being, with less...
Updated: 7 hours ago
Study: Some Tampa Bay neighborhoods among quickest selling in the state

Study: Some Tampa Bay neighborhoods among quickest selling in the state

Tampa Bay sounds like a home seller’s dream market — even compared to other locales statewide. According to a recent study by SmartAsset, four of the top 10 easiest places to sell a home in Florida are in the bay area. Northern Hillsborough County ac...
Updated: 11 hours ago
Lower demand brings slight dip in gas prices across state, Tampa Bay

Lower demand brings slight dip in gas prices across state, Tampa Bay

Just in time for fall, pump prices are finally declining. Gas prices in Florida averaged $2.72 per gallon Monday, down from $2.74 per gallon a week ago, according to AAA, The Auto Club Group. Tampa Bay prices were even lower at $2.63 per gallon, down...
Published: 09/24/18
SiriusXM to buy Pandora for $3.5 Billion in bid to expand reach

SiriusXM to buy Pandora for $3.5 Billion in bid to expand reach

Satellite radio provider Sirius XM said Monday that it would acquire music streaming service Pandora Media for $3.5 billion in a bid to corral listeners who do not want to pay for premium channels.Pandora rose to success by providing tailored radio s...
Published: 09/24/18
Jeff Vinik invests in gaming headset maker boosted by Fortnite’s popularity

Jeff Vinik invests in gaming headset maker boosted by Fortnite’s popularity

TAMPA — As a mutual fund wonder-boy, hedge fund manager and real estate investor, Jeff Vinik has long displayed a sense for knowing when to put money into the next big thing, and his latest bet on e-sports may be no different.Vink recently bought nea...
Published: 09/24/18
Hernando Business Digest for Sept. 28

Hernando Business Digest for Sept. 28

BrieflyEMPLOYERS NEEDED FOR JOB FAIR: Pasco-Hernando State College, CareerSource Pasco Hernando, the Greater Hernando County Chamber of Commerce and Hernando County Office of Economic Development are seeking employers to participate in the Open for A...
Published: 09/24/18
Solar farm land price is $6.8 million, including $4.4 million to state Sen. Wilton Simpson

Solar farm land price is $6.8 million, including $4.4 million to state Sen. Wilton Simpson

Tampa Electric Co. has said its Mountain View Solar project near Dade City represented a $75 million investment in alternative energy. The investing began in earnest last week when the utility paid more than $6.8 million for 382 acres in the rural co...
Published: 09/24/18
Dear Penny: I spent everything ending a bad relationship. Can I treat myself?

Dear Penny: I spent everything ending a bad relationship. Can I treat myself?

Dear Penny, I just made one of the hardest decisions of my life and ended the relationship I had been in since my early 20s. After a decade in a bad relationship, I’m super excited to be single again. The problem is my wardrobe. Over the past few yea...
Published: 09/24/18
Nearly half of cellphone calls will be scams by 2019, report says

Nearly half of cellphone calls will be scams by 2019, report says

Nearly half of all cellphone calls next year will come from scammers, according to First Orion, a company that provides phone carriers and their customers caller ID and call blocking technology.The Arkansas-based firm projects an explosion of incomin...
Published: 09/23/18
Walmart is teaming with a Seminole Heights chef to promote locally grown mushrooms

Walmart is teaming with a Seminole Heights chef to promote locally grown mushrooms

TAMPA — It might seem like an unlikely match from the outside: A distinguished chef with a restaurant known for inventive plates using produce shoppers can find at… Walmart?Walmart, the country’s largest grocer, is known for having a core consumer wh...
Published: 09/21/18
Updated: 09/23/18